10.29
Methanex reported Q3/09 EBITDA of $31.0 million, in line with consensus
of $32.5 million. While produced sales volumes were above our expectations
(943Kt versus our estimate of 850Kt), this was offset by a lower realized
methanol price ($222/t versus our estimate of $237/t).
Methanol demand is showing signs of improvement. Currently, on an
annualized basis, methanol demand is estimated at ~40Mt versus ~36Mt in
Q4/08. The key driver has been demand growth in energy applications,
especially fuel blending in China, and increased DME operating rates.
While methanol demand should improve as the global economy improves,
the methanol market has more capacity than is required to meet current
demand. With ~4Mt of new capacity scheduled for 2010 (represents 10+%
of global demand), the methanol market is headed for a surplus.
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