07.19
Housing Markets Appear To Be Entering Recovery Phase;
In June, MLS resale activity rose 27.7% y-o-y (+22.8% in unit volume,
+4.0% in average price), following a 3.4% increase in May, and reducing
the decline in H1/09 MLS activity to 9.8% (-7.8% in unit volume, -2.2% in
avg price). July activity to date reportedly is showing continuing strength.
Extremely low mortgage interest rates, improved affordability, and
recovering consumer confidence are supporting the strength. It now
appears likely that MLS resale activity may be off only a modest 3%-4% in
2009 and an increase of 5%-7% appears attainable in 2010.
In light of evidence that residential resale market activity is entering a
recovery phase, we are increasing our 2009E DCFPU to $1.72 from $1.60
(versus 2008 DCFPU of $1.84) and our 2010E DCFPU to $1.85 from $1.70.
BRE.UN’s units trade at only 4.9x 2009E DCFPU and yield 16.7% on a fully
covered distribution.
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